Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
